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Research

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Work in Progress

Market Design in Regulated Health Insurance Markets: Risk Adjustment vs. Subsidies
(with Amy Finkelstein and Pietro Tebaldi)
[current draft: February 2019] 

Submitted Papers

Selling Subscriptions
(with Ben Klopack and Neale Mahoney)
[current draft: December 2023]
covered by Financial Times (August 15, 2023), Fortune (August 15, 2023), SIEPR (August 15, 2023), MarketWatch (August 16, 2023), NPR (August 30, 2023), Financial Times (October 5, 2023), NBER Digest (October 2023), USA Today (December 3, 2023), Wall Street Journal (January 19, 2024)

Targeting Precision Medicine: Evidence from Prenatal Screening (with Peter Conner, Amy Finkelstein, and Petra Persson) revised and resubmitted, Journal of Political Economy [current draft: November 2023] Summarized in VOX CEPR (February 7, 2023) Producing Health: Measuring Value Added of Nursing Homes (with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney) revise and resubmit, Econometrica [current draft: July 2022] Customers and Retail Growth (with Pete Klenow, Jonathan Levin, and Raviv Murciano-Goroff) revise and resubmit, Review of Economic Studies [current draft: October 2022] Online Appendix

Books

We've Got You Covered: Rebooting American Health Care
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Portfolio -- Penguin Books, July 2023
Media coverage Risky Business: Why Insurance Markets Fail and What to Do About It (with Amy Finkelstein and Ray Fisman) Yale University Press, January 2023 Media coverage

Published and Forthcoming Papers

The Impact of Increased Access to Telemedicine
(with Dan Zeltzer, Joseph Rashba, and Ran Balicer)
Journal of the European Economic Association, 22(2), April 2024, forthcoming
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Summarized in VOX CEPR (July 21, 2021) and SIEPR brief (August 10, 2021)

Empirical Analyses of Selection and Welfare in Insurance Markets: A Self-Indulgent Survey
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 48(2), September 2023, 167-191

Long Term Care Hospitals: A Case Study in Waste
(with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 125(4), July 2023, 745-765 (lead article)
Online Appendix
covered by the New York Times (August 27, 2018), Modern Healthcare (August 27, 2018), Forbes (August 29, 2018), Skilled Nursing News (September 3, 2018), and Home Health Care News (September 11, 2018)

Adoption and Utilization of Device-Assisted Telemedicine
(with Dan Zeltzer, Joseph Rashba, Yehezkel Waisman, Motti Haimi, and Ran Balicer)
Journal of Health Economics, 90, July 2023, Article No. 102780
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs

Why is End-of-Life Spending so High? Evidence from Cancer Patients
(with Dan Zeltzer, Amy Finkelstein, Tzvi Shir, Salomon Stemmer, and Ran Balicer)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 125(3), May 2023, 511-527
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs 

The Risk of Losing Health Insurance in the United States is Large, and Remained So After The Affordable Care Act
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(18), April 2023
Supplementary Material

Assessing The Gains from E-Commerce
(with Paul Dolfen, Pete Klenow, Ben Klopack, Jonathan Levin, Larry Levin, and Wayne Best)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(1), January 2023, 342-370
Online Appendix
covered by The Washington Post (March 15, 2019) and Quartz (October 30, 2019)

Financial Incentives to Facilities and Clinicians Treating Patients With End-stage Kidney Disease and Use of Home Dialysis: A Randomized Clinical Trial
(with Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, and Neale Mahoney)
JAMA Health Forum, 3(10), October 2022

Voluntary Regulation: Evidence from Medicare Payment Reform
(with Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, and Neale Mahoney)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(1), February 2022, 565-618
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs

The IO of Selection Markets
(with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney)
Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume 5(1), edited by Kate Ho, Ali Hortacsu, and Alessandro Lizzeri, Elsevier, December 2021, Chapter 14, 389-426

Supply-Side Variation in the Use of Emergency Departments
(with Dan Zeltzer, Avichai Chasid, and Ran Balicer)
Journal of Health Economics, 78, July 2021, Article No. 102453
Online Appendix

Consolidation of Primary Care Physicians and Its Impact on Healthcare Utilization
(with Jonathan Zhang, Yiwei Chen, Jonathan Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya)
Health Economics, 30(6), June 2021, 1361-1373
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs

Rising opioid prescription fulfillment among non-cancer and non-elderly patients—Israel’s alarming example
(with Oren Miron, Dan Zeltzer, Tzvi Shir, Ran Balicer, and Becca Feldman)
Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine, 46(5), May 2021, 455-456

Can Health Insurance Competition Work? Evidence from Medicare Advantage
(with Vilsa Curto, Jonathan Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya)
Journal of Political Economy, 129(2), February 2021, 570-606
Online Appendix

Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms
(with Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail Ostriker, and Heidi Williams)
American Economic Review, 110(12), December 2020, 3836-3870
Online Appendix
Covered in  Science (Science  370 (6522), pp. 1287-1288, December 11,  2020), MIT News (December 17, 2020), and Imaging Wire (December 24, 2020)

Can Targeting High-Risk Patients Reduce Readmission Rates? Evidence from Israel
(with Efrat Shadmi, Dan Zeltzer, Tzvi Shir, Natalie Flaks-Manov, and Ran Balicer)
Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), November 2020, 729-745

Randomized Trial Shows Healthcare Payment Reform has Equal-Sized Spillover Effects on Patients not Targeted by Reform
(with Amy Finkelstein, Yunan Ji, and Neale Mahoney)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(32), August 2020, 18939-18947
Supplementary Material

Prediction Accuracy With Electronic Medical Records Versus Administrative Claims
(with Dan Zeltzer, Ran Balicer, Tzvi Shir, Natalie Flaks-Manov, and Efrat Shadmi)
Medical Care, 57(7), July 2019, 551-559

Healthcare Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare
(with Vilsa Curto, Amy Finkelstein, Jonathan Levin, and Jay Bhattacharya)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 11(2), April 2019, 302-332
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
covered by the New York Times (August 7, 2017)

The Impact of Financial Incentives on Health and Healthcare: Evidence from a Large Wellness Program
(with Stephanie Lee and Jonathan Levin)
Health Economics, 28(2), February 2019, 261-279

Provider Incentives and Healthcare Costs: Evidence from Long-Term Care Hospitals
(with Amy Finkelstein and Neale Mahoney)
Econometrica, 86(6), November 2018, 2161-2219
Estimation Code

Private Provision of Social Insurance: Drug-Specific Price Elasticities and Cost Sharing in Medicare Part D
(with Amy Finkelstein and Maria Polyakova)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(3), August 2018, 122-153
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs, Downloadable drug-level elasticity estimates, Downloadable class-level elasticity estimates

Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: What We Know and How We Know It
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of European Economic Association, 16(4), August 2018, 957-982
This is a write-up of Amy's Marshall Lecture at the 2017 EEA Meeting

Consumer Price Search and Platform Design in Internet Commerce
(with Michael Dinerstein, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review, 108(7), July 2018, 1820-1859 
Online Appendix and Data and Programs (data set is available with AER subscription only)

Predictive Modeling of U.S. Health Care Spending in Late Life
(with Amy Finkelstein, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Ziad Obermeyer)
Science, 360, June 2018, 1462-1465
Supplementary Material and Programs
Covered in STAT News (June 28, 2018), WBUR (June 28, 2018), Bloomberg (July 18, 2018), and Forbes (October 11, 2018)

Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets
(with Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
Journal of Political Economy, 126(1), February 2018, 178-215 
Appendix A-D, Appendix E (seller survey), and Data and Programs
Covered in Bloomberg Businessweek (May 26, 2013) and The Economist (August 29, 2015)

Is American Pet Health Care (Also) Uniquely Inefficient?
(with Amy Finkelstein and Atul Gupta)
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 107(5), May 2017, 491-495
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Covered in Slate (September 27, 2016), The Atlantic (October 7, 2016), The New York Times (January 9, 2017), Harvard Business Review (January 10, 2017), and The Economist (January 12, 2017) 

Outpatient Wait Times and Quality of Care for Medicaid Patients
(with Tamar Oostrom and Amy Finkelstein)
Health Affairs, 36(5), May 2017, 826-832
Online Appendix
Covered in MIT News (May 1, 2017) 

Developments in Data for Economic Research
(with many authors)
in Economics without Borders: Economic Policy for European Policy Challenges, Richard Blundell et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, March 2017, Chapter 13.6, 596-603

Bunching at The Kink: Implications for Spending Responses to Health Insurance Contracts
(with Amy Finkelstein and Paul Schrimpf)
Journal of Public Economics, 146, February 2017, 27-40

Peer-to-Peer Markets
(with Chiara Farronato and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics, 8, September 2016, 615-635
Mentioned in Financial Times (September 25, 2015)

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores
(with Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender, and Paul Schrimpf)
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(2), April 2016, 195-224
Estimation Code

Paying on the Margin for Medical Care: Evidence from Breast Cancer Treatments
(with Amy Finkelstein and Heidi Williams)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 8(1), February 2016, 52-79
Online Appendix and Estimation Code

Managed Competition in Health Insurance
(with Jonathan Levin)
Journal of European Economic Association, 13(6), December 2015, 998-1021
This is a write-up of my Marshall Lecture at the 2014 EEA Meeting

Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: Do Dynamic Incentives Matter?
(with Aviva Aron-Dine, Amy Finkelstein, and Mark Cullen)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 97(4), October 2015, 725-741
Previously circulated as "Moral hazard in health insurance: How important is forward looking behavior?"
Online Appendix

The Response of Drug Expenditure to Nonlinear Contract Design: Evidence from Medicare Part D
(with Amy Finkelstein and Paul Schrimpf)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(2), May 2015, 841-899
Online Appendix and Estimation Code

Assessing Sale Strategies in Online Markets using Matched Listings
(with Theresa Kuchler, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 7(2), May 2015, 215-247
Previously circulated as "Learning from Seller Experiments in Online Markets"
Online Appendix A and Online Appendix B
Summarized in Vox (September 18, 2011 )

Economics in The Age of Big Data
(with Jonathan Levin)
Science, 345(6210), November 2014, 715
Covered in Quartz (November 18, 2014)

Growth, Adoption, and Use of Mobile e-Commerce
(with Jonathan Levin, Igor Popov, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 104(5), May 2014, 489-494
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs
Summarized in LSE USAPP Blog

The Data Revolution and Economic Analysis
(with Jonathan Levin)
Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 14, edited by Josh Lerner and Scott Stern, May 2014, 1-24
Mentioned in The New York Times (September 7, 2013)

Sales Taxes and Internet Commerce
(with Dan Knoepfle, Jonathan Levin, and Neel Sundaresan)
American Economic Review, 104(1), January 2014, 1-26 (lead article)
Online Appendix
Summarized in LSE USAPP Blog, mentioned in Wall Street Journal (March 22, 2012) and in PC Magzine (May 7, 2013), featured in The Atlantic (May 3, 2012), and referred to in a related SIEPR Policy Brief (January 2013) that we wrote

A Model of Market Power in Customer Markets
(with Paulo Somaini)
Journal of Industrial Economics, 61(4), December 2013, 938-986
Programs for Numerical Analysis

The Impact of Credit Scoring on Consumer Lending
(with Mark Jenkins and Jonathan Levin)
RAND Journal of Economics, 44(2), Summer 2013, 249-274

The RAND Health Insurance Experiment, Three Decades Later
(with Aviva Aron-Dine and Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of Economcis Perspectives, 27(1), Winter 2013, 197-222
Online Appendix and Data and Estimation Programs

Selection on Moral Hazard in Health Insurance
(with Amy Finkelstein, Stephen Ryan, Paul Schrimpf, and Mark Cullen)
American Economic Review, 103(1), February 2013, 178-219
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs

How General Are Risk Preferences? Choices under Uncertainty in Different Domains
(with Amy Finkelstein, Iuliana Pascu, and Mark Cullen)
American Economic Review, 102(6), October 2012, 2606-2638
Online Appendix and Estimation Programs

On The Optimality of Line Call Challenges in Professional Tennis
(with Ran Abramitzky, Shimon Kolkowitz, and Roy Mill)
International Economic Review, 53(3), August 2012, 939-964
Data and Programs

Contract Pricing in Consumer Credit Markets
(with Mark Jenkins and Jonathan Levin)
Econometrica, 80(4), July 2012, 1387-1432
Online Appendix A, Online Appendix B, and Estimation Programs

Jonathan Levin: 2011 John Bates Clark Medalist
(with Steve Tadelis)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 26(2), Spring 2012, 207-222

Selection in Insurance Markets: Theory and Empirics in Pictures
(with Amy Finkelstein)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 25(1), Winter 2011, 115-138 
All Figures in Powerpoint

Beyond Testing: Empirical Models of Insurance Markets
(with Amy Finkelstein and Jonathan Levin)
Annual Review of Economics, 2, September 2010, 311-336 

Estimating Welfare in Insurance Markets using Variation in Prices
(with Amy Finkelstein and Mark Cullen)
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(3), August 2010, 877-921 (lead article)
Online Appendix

Is Hanukkah Responsive to Christmas?
(with Ran Abramitzky and Oren Rigbi)
Economic Journal, 120(545), June 2010, 612-630
Featured in Slate Magazine (December 19, 2008), Financial Times (December 17, 2010), The Economist (December 17, 2011), The Washington Post (December 22, 2011), and Jewish Journal (December 8, 2018).

Recording Discrepancies in Nielsen Homescan Data: Are They Present and Do They Matter?
(with Ephraim Leibtag and Aviv Nevo)
Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 8(2), June 2010, 207-239
Data supplement (that can be used to construct distributions of price measurement errors and use them to correct estimates from Homescan data)
USDA-ERS report titled "On the Accuracy of Nielsen Homescan Data" (earlier version with more nitty gritty details)
Previously circulated as "Not-So-Classical Measurement Errors: A Validation Study of Homescan"

Optimal Mandates and The Welfare Cost of Asymmetric Information: Evidence from The U.K. Annuity Market
(with Amy Finkelstein and Paul Schrimpf)
Econometrica, 78(3), May 2010, 1031-1092
Estimation Programs and a Readme file

Empirical Industrial Organization: A Progress Report
(with Jonathan Levin)
Journal of Economics Perspectives, 24(2), Spring 2010, 145-162
Reprinted (in Russian!) in Voprosi Economiki

Not All Rivals Look Alike: Estimating an Equilibrium Model of The Release Date Timing Game
 Economic Inquiry, 48(2), April 2010, 369-390
 Selected as "Best Economic Inquiry Article of 2010"

Stock Market Response to Changes in Movies' Opening Dates
(with Abraham Ravid)
Journal of Cultural Economics, 33(4), November 2009, 311-319
Mentioned in The New York Times (July 14, 2009)

Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending
(with William Adams and Jonathan Levin)
American Economic Review, 99(1), March 2009, 49-84
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs
Mentioned in The New York Times (January 18, 2009)

Discrete Choice Models of Firms' Strategic Decisions
(with Michaela Draganska, Sanjog Misra, Victor Aguirregabiria, Pat Bajari, Paul Ellickson, Dan Horsky, Sridhar Narayanan, Yesim Orhun, Peter Reiss, Katja Seim, Vishal Singh, Raphael Thomadsen, and Ting Zhu)
Marketing Letters, 19(3-4), December 2008, 399-416

Production Targets
(with Guillermo Caruana)
RAND Journal of Economics, 39(4), Winter 2008, 990-1017
Online Appendix (selected quotes from interviews and press)

A Theory of Endogenous Commitment
(with Guillermo Caruana)
Review of Economic Studies, 75(1), January 2008, 99-116
Online appendix: description of the main algorithm
Additional material: examples, algorithm for generic finite two-player games
Programs: download two-by-two algorithm programs, download programs for generic finite two-player games
Earlier draft: working paper version with more results

Uniform Prices for Differentiated Goods: The Case of the Movie-Theater Industry
(with Barak Orbach)
International Review of Law and Economics, 27(2), June 2007, 129-153
Featured in The Washington Post (November 24, 2006), Arizona Daily Star (January 6, 2007), Fortune (November 25, 2014), and Slate (November 2, 2017), and mentioned in The Wisdom of Crowds (page 101) and Los Angeles Times (March 8, 2022)

Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice
(with Alma Cohen)
American Economic Review, 97(3), June 2007, 745-788
Online Appendix, Estimation Programs and Information about using the data
Winner of an Emerald Management Reviews Citation of Excellence as one of the 50 best articles published in 2007 in management

Seasonality in the U.S. Motion Picture Industry
RAND Journal of Economics, 38(1), Spring 2007, 127-145
Previously circulated as "Gross Seasonality and Underlying Seasonality: Evidence fom the U.S. Motion Picture Industry"
Raw Data, Edited and Supplemented Data
Covered in The New York Times (September 5, 2013), The New York Times Magazine (September 8, 2013), and The New Yorker (February 23, 2015)

Equilibrium Demand Elasticities across Quality Segments
(with Olivier Coibion and Juan Carlos Hallak)
International Journal of Industrial Organization, 25(1), February 2007, 13-30

Multilateral Bargaining with Concession Costs
(with Guillermo Caruana and Daniel Quint)
Journal of Economic Theory, 132(1), January 2007, 147-166

Empirical Models of Imperfect Competition: A Discussion
(with Aviv Nevo)
Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications, Ninth World Congress, Volume II, edited by Richard Blundell, Whitney K. Newey, and Torsten Persson, Cambridge University Press, November 2006, Chapter 3, 86-96 [link to book]
A Note on The Analogies between Empirical Models of Auctions and of Differentiated Product Markets (A related note with more details - but not very polished - that got some citations)

What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success
(with Leeat Yariv)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(1), Winter 2006, 175-188
Publications Data, Faculty Data, Working Paper version with Probits and a Toy Model
Featured in Forbes (May 22, 2006), The Boston Globe (June 25, 2006), The Chronicle of Higher Education (April 20, 2006), Slate Magazine (January 28, 2011), The Sunday Times (May 20, 2010), The Washington Monthly (April 13, 2006), and The Washington Post (May 4, 2006), and mentioned in SuperFreakonomics (page 59) and The Economist (October 19, 2023)

Efficient Entry
(with Daniel Quint)
Economics Letters, 88(2), August 2005, 278-283

Informational Asymmetries and Observational Learning in Search
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30(3), June 2005, 241-259
Earlier Version with more results

Determinants of International Tourism: A Three-Dimensional Panel Data Analysis
(with Yair Eilat)
Applied Economics, 36(12), July 2004, 1315-1328

The Effect of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities
(with Alma Cohen)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), August 2003, 828-843
Data Set and Do File

Flawed Rankings: A Comment [on Dusansky-Vernon] (comment)
(with Zvi Griliches)
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(4), Fall 1998, 233-235

Unpublished/Incomplete Manuscripts

Endogenous Participation and Local Market Power in Highway Procurement
(with Ignacio Esponda)
[current draft: March 2008]